Early Warning Report for Tuesday, 02 April 2024. TODAY’S BRIEFING:READ TIME: 4 minutes, 23 seconds
Inside the Beltway(1) Lawmakers Announce Bipartisan Bill on DHS Border AI Domestic INTSUM(2) Texas Reports First Bird Flu Jump from Cattle to Human(3) Yang: Is April ‘Make or Break’ for Biden?Global SITREP(4) Israel Strikes Iranian Officials in Syria(5) Argentina’s Milei May Hinder China’s Space Program(6) Regional Rollups
(1) LAWMAKERS ANNOUNCE BIPARTISAN BILL ON DHS BORDER AI:
Representatives Lou Correa (D-CA) and Morgan Lutrell (R-TX) announced the Emerging Innovative Border Technologies Act, which would require the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to map out plans for using artificial intelligence (AI) tools and adopt commercial AI tools. Lutrell said the U.S. “must deploy the latest and most advanced technologies available to our borders to disrupt” cartel and foreign adversary operations on the border, which have become more sophisticated.
Former Pentagon Joint Artificial Intelligence Center official Gregory Allen said insider threats, theft, and hacks targeting AI companies would increase in the next five years, and even companies that take threats seriously are still being hacked and exploited.
Why It Matters: DHS using commercial off-the-shelf AI tools poses an espionage risk. Foreign adversaries posing as employees or gaining employment at AI firms could steal or otherwise corrupt data used by DHS for border security. Commercial AI tools used for domestic surveillance, like those funded through National Science Foundation grants for social media moderation, are also very likely to introduce political bias in enforcement based on data from those tools. – R.C.
(2) TEXAS REPORTS FIRST BIRD FLU JUMP FROM CATTLE TO HUMAN: The Texas Department of State Health Services reported the first human infection of avian influenza (H5N1), which authorities believe was transmitted from cattle infected with H5N1.“Every single time is a little bit of Russian roulette,” and eventually H5N1 will adapt to spread among humans, former Biden official Ashish Jha said.Brown University Pandemic Center director Jennifer Nuzzo said authorities have been concerned about H5N1 for more than twenty years, and it is “remarkable” how far across the globe H5N1 has spread over the last year.
Why It Matters: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) say the human infection risk is still low, but their assessment could change if more cases of cattle-to-human transmission are discovered. If H5N1 does mutate to allow cattle-to-human and human-to-human transmission, the case fatality rate is the most significant concern. The World Health Organization is tracking global H5N1 human infections, and they say the case fatality rate is above 50%. The situation is still developing but could become a food security threat due to the vulnerability of U.S. food supply chains to biosecurity threats. – R.C.
(3) YANG: IS APRIL ‘MAKE OR BREAK’ FOR BIDEN?: Former presidential candidate and businessman Andrew Yang said April may be a make-or-break month for the Biden campaign as they spend $30 million to improve poll numbers in key swing states where Biden is losing to Trump.“The thing to do is see what’s happening to the numbers at the end of April because if, $30 million in, you don’t see a bump in the swing states… it’s going to go from anxiety to ‘the sky is falling’ on the Democratic side,” Yang said.
Why It Matters: Biden achieved a single-day fundraising record over the weekend at a fundraiser alongside former Presidents Obama and Clinton – a solid sign that Democrats remain behind Biden despite earlier doubts. According to reports, Obama and other senior Democratic officials have expressed concern that Biden might actually lose to Trump in November. If Biden’s polling numbers in swing states don’t improve, especially among younger voters, then senior Democrats could reignite a push to replace Biden on the ticket. – M.S.
(4) ISRAEL STRIKES IRANIAN OFFICIALS IN SYRIA: According to reports, Israeli F-35s conducted an airstrike in Damascus, Syria, targeting Iranian officials at a consulate building.
Iran is confirming the death of two Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps – Quds Force (IRGC-QF) generals. The strike is drawing international condemnation while Iran promises to retaliate against Israel. Meanwhile, the Israeli government is reporting an increased security posture domestically and at its embassies around the world in anticipation of retaliation. A senior Iranian official also blamed the United States for their support of Israel.
Why It Matters: According to one Israeli reporter, Israeli leaders are attempting to provoke an expanded conflict in Lebanon. In January, Israel killed another Iranian general stationed in Syria and did not get the response Israeli leaders had hoped for, according to the reporter. The two IRGC-QF generals killed in yesterday’s strikes were responsible for operations in Syria and Lebanon and have worked closely with Palestinian groups in the past. It’s possible that Israel is just trying to sever ties between Iran and Hamas, as opposed to starting a new conventional war in southern Lebanon. – M.S.
(5) ARGENTINA’S MILEI MAY HINDER CHINA’S SPACE PROGRAM:
U.S. Ambassador to Argentina Marc Stanley recently said he was surprised that Argentina would allow the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to operate a military space facility in the country. Stanley was referring to the Espacio Lejano Station, a Chinese Strategic Support Force space observation base that’s part of the Chinese Deep Space Network.
Why It Matters: Argentine President Javier Milei has already taken several steps toward re-Americanization, including renouncing a previously approved BRICS+ membership. The U.S. Government is likely to pressure Milei to shut down the Neuquén base in his first term in order to hinder China’s space warfare and exploration capabilities. – J.V.
Americas Rollup. Mayor London Breed of San Francisco will visit China from 13 to 21 April to strengthen economic and tourism ties with China. She also hopes to bring pandas back to the zoo, a Chinese symbol of good diplomatic relations.
Indo-Pacific Rollup. Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou arrived in mainland China today to promote cross-strait peace and stability. Philippine Vice Admiral Alberto Carlos, the Philippines Western Forces commander, said his forces on the ground are prepared for the “worst-case scenario.”
Russia-NATO Rollup. Estonia’s Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said all NATO members have troops in Ukraine in advisory roles, according to Russian media.
Middle East Rollup. Palestine is calling for the United Nations Security Council to vote it into full membership of the United Nations, according to Palestine’s permanent observer of the UN. (Historically, we could expect the United States to veto this, but the U.S. recently abstained from vetoing the ceasefire resolution. Membership requires no permanent council member to vote against the recognition, allowing the U.S. to abstain again. – J.V.)
Upcoming Protest Events
(Next 24 Hours) Yonkers, NY Activity: All out for Palestine; Your silence makes you complicit. Location: Van Der Donck Park, Yonkers, NY Time: 1700; Tuesday, April 2 —
END REPORT M.S. indicates analyst commentary from Mike Shelby
J.V. indicates analyst commentary from Jared Vaughn
R.C. indicates analyst commentary from Robert Cook
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