READ TIME: 5 Minutes Inside the Beltway(1) Biden Locks in Schedule F Block Against Trump(2) House GOP Demand Answers from DHS on Immigration Dismissals(3) Biden Urges Netanyahu for Immediate Ceasefire Domestic INTSUM(4) No Labels Ends Third Party Run(5) Big Short Billionaire Gets Behind Trump Global SITREP(6) IRGC Vows Payback, Attack Possibly Imminent(7) Yellen to Hold “Contentious” Talks with China(8) SCO Looking at Path to De-Dollarized Trade(9) New Zealand to Approve New NATO Partnership
(1) BIDEN LOCKS IN SCHEDULE F BLOCK AGAINST TRUMP: The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) released a final rule yesterday intended to block a potential Trump administration from reclassifying civil service employees into a new job schedule with fewer protections.A Biden official said a future administration would not be able to change the rule through executive action but would have to follow the same public rule-making process.
Why It Matters: Blocking the reimplementation of Schedule F is a priority for the Biden White House and Democratic Party. Reclassifying federal civil service employees into Schedule F, as the Trump administration attempted to do, would return federal executive branch employees under the more direct control of the White House. The federal civil service has become a de facto independent branch of government, and immunity from being fired has allowed federal agencies to undermine the previous Trump administration without consequence. – R.C.
(2) HOUSE GOP DEMAND ANSWERS FROM DHS ON IMMIGRATION DISMISSALS: In a letter to Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, Reps. Jim Jordan (R-OH) and Tim McClintock (R-CA) said DHS failed to file Notices to Appear in at least 200,000 immigration cases since 2021, causing immigration judges to dismiss the cases.
Why It Matters: DHS failed to file only 15,000 Notices to Appear from 2017 to 2020. DHS and Biden administration actions are driving the immigration crisis through what appears to be a deliberate choice of procedural failure. – R.C.
(3) BIDEN URGES NETANYAHU FOR IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE: According to the White House, President Joe Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that an immediate ceasefire is needed to stabilize the humanitarian situation in Gaza.Biden said U.S. support will depend on Israel taking action on civilian casualties and humanitarian aid.
Why It Matters: The Biden administration has made unprecedented policy moves on Israel since the beginning of the year, and this is a signal that Biden likely takes the threat of a regional crisis seriously. The deaths of the World Central Kitchen aid workers is very likely a turning point for the Biden administration on Israel policy, and domestic pressure from activists and the “uncommitted” campaign is pushing Biden to shore up his reelection by publicly calling for a ceasefire. – R.C.
(4) NO LABELS ENDS THIRD PARTY RUN: Bipartisan group No Labels founder Nancy Jacobson said the group will end its third party “unity ticket” after the group could not find a presidential candidate with a credible path to winning the White House.Why It Matters: Multiple potential candidates, including Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), former Republican primary candidate Chris Christie, and former Republican governor Larry Hogan, turned down a No Labels run since January. No Labels was already in trouble heading into the primary and canceled their in-person conference earlier this year. No Labels said their strategy was to block an Electoral College victory for Biden and Trump, which, while plausible, was unlikely to succeed. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. remains the only significant third-party candidate, and according to polls from Rasmussen, he is very unlikely to take away Trump’s votes. – R.C.
(5) BIG SHORT BILLIONAIRE GETS BEHIND TRUMP: Billionaire John Paulson said many donors to former Republican primary challengers are now supporting former President Trump, and he expects more donors to get behind Trump as the election approaches. Paulson added that Trump did a “phenomenal job” during his first term, creating a stable economy and containing foreign adversaries Russia and China.
Why It Matters: Republican big-money donors and a potential counter-elite are solidifying behind Trump because they are seeking domestic and global economic and political stability. Biden is currently leading Trump in campaign fundraising due to a decrease in Republican small-dollar donations since 2020. Trump is now likely to close the fundraising gap as more Republican donors back his campaign. – R.C.
(6) IRGC VOWS PAYBACK, ATTACK POSSIBLY IMMINENT: Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander General Hossein Salami vowed reprisal attacks against Israel for the recent killings of IRGC Quds Force generals. There’s been media speculation that the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has warned Israel of an Iranian attack coming within the coming days. U.S. national security spokesman
Why It Matters: From Iran’s perspective, retaliation needs to be meaningful in order to save face, but the Iranians have previously avoided escalation into a broader Israel-Iranian war. U.S. officials are reportedly “very concerned” that the situation will escalate into a larger war. In addition to large-scale rocket attacks, the Iranians are likely targeting senior Israeli officials for assassination. That could include attacks on Israeli embassies abroad where Iranian proxy groups are active. – M.S.
(7) YELLEN TO HOLD “CONTENTIOUS” TALKS WITH CHINA: U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is holding multiple days of talks with Chinese officials over their “excess production.”Yellen and the Biden administration are specifically concerned that China’s overproduction of subsidized electric vehicles, solar panels, and other items will undercut U.S. competitiveness and could potentially drive some U.S. companies out of business.
Why It Matters: Chinese officials defended their production as “simple economics.” During the Obama administration, Chinese producers flooded U.S. markets with cheap tires, almost certainly in a bid to drive U.S. tire manufacturers out of business. Then-president Obama entered a short-lived tariff/trade war and China ultimately backed off. So far, Yellen has been vague about adverse actions the U.S. might take, but the escalation of another trade war is probably not off the table. – M.S.
(8) SCO LOOKING AT PATH TO DE-DOLLARIZED TRADE: Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Secretary-General Zhang Ming said that officials are studying ways to increase bilateral currency trades within the SCO to reduce dependency on the U.S. Dollar.
Why It Matters: The SCO agreed to move forward with a plan to settle trade in national currencies in 2022. Like the BRICS economic alliance, the SCO will face challenges in moving significant portions of its trade off the dollar due to limitations on liquidity and credit in its members’ national currencies. These efforts are part of China’s strategy to displace, but not replace, the USD as the world reserve. – M.S.
(9) NEW ZEALAND TO APPROVE NEW NATO PARTNERSHIP: New Zealand signaled they’ll be partnering with NATO this year, fearing that an undesired outcome in Ukraine could affect security in the Indo-Pacific. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winson Peters will meet with senior U.S. officials this month to discuss increased cooperation after attending the NATO foreign ministers meeting earlier this week.
Why It Matters: NATO has steadily increased military cooperation with Japan and South Korea in previous years. NATO meetings with South Korea have specifically focused on improving military interoperability between the two countries. Despite protests from China, NATO’s increased cooperation with New Zealand and others is a sure sign that “global NATO” foresees an increased presence in the Indo-Pacific. – M.S.
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