(1) CHINA RAMPING UP INDUSTRIAL TRADE WAR ON U.S.: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said, “China’s desire is to really have global domination” of new industries like electric vehicles, batteries, and solar industry that could force industry in the rest of the world to contract.
Alliance for American Manufacturing president Scott Paul said China’s policies that help them dominate markets and “past administrations’ hesitancy to appropriately prevent or respond to the threat” weakened U.S. industry.
Why It Matters: China has cornered the global market on key industries for U.S. supply chains, including medicine, port infrastructure, and critical minerals. Eventual supply chain disruptions for the U.S. are likely, as China’s strategy appears to be aimed at preventing domestic industries from building up before a 2027 conflict. – R.C.
(2) FEDERAL JUDGE SAYS DOJ ADMIN COURTS UNCONSTITUTIONAL: Federal District Judge J. Randall Hall ruled Department of Justice (DOJ) administrative law judges assess penalties and forfeitures against private parties on behalf of the government without Congressional supervision required by Article II of the U.S. Constitution.
Why It Matters: More than three dozen federal agencies and cabinet departments use administrative law judges and their own appeals system, which operates effectively as a shadow court system against people and companies targeted by federal agencies. These individuals and companies must make it through these courts before getting their case to a state or federal court. The Supreme Court decision on SEC v. Jarkesy and cases that could strike down Chevron Deference are still pending. However, the Supreme Court signaled in previous cases that it is interested in curtailing what some legal scholars say is unconstitutional overreach by federal agencies. – R.C.
(3) MANCHIN: NEW EPA METHANE RULE TO SPIKE ENERGY PRICES: In a letter to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) said the EPA’s new rules raising methane emissions fees on petroleum and natural gas companies “seem intended to serve as yet another avenue to raise the costs of domestic energy production.”
According to a Dallas Federal Reserve survey, the majority of energy companies expect the new EPA rules, the liquid natural gas (LNG) pause, and uncertainty about the 2024 election to negatively impact LNG production for at least the next five years.
Why It Matters: Americans will very likely be hit by increasingly expensive and unreliable power after these new EPA rules go into effect. The long-term impacts of these rules and the Department of Energy LNG pause will also affect American energy security. It would likely create another cycle of LNG shortages due to increasing demand and decreased production. – R.C.
(4) CISA RELEASES FIRST CRIT. INFRASTRUCTURE HACK REPORTING RULES: The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) released a new proposed rule that would require critical infrastructure operators to send detailed reports on network breaches and ransomware attacks within 72 hours of detection.
CISA’s new rule will cover hacks that cause a critical loss of system availability, damage operational technology, disrupt business operations, or breach networks through third parties.
Why It Matters: The 18-month timeline before CISA enforces this new reporting rule will run right up to a potential 2027 conflict between the U.S. and China. Recent developments indicate the federal government is very concerned about domestic disruption due to cyber attacks during a period of crisis or conflict. – R.C.
Frontlines (Early Warning)
(5) WHAT EXPLAINS THE LACK OF FAR LEFT ORGANIZING?: At roughly seven months before the election, I’m still seeing a lack of urgency, a lack of incendiary posts to blogs and social media accounts, and a lack of organizing activity among revolutionary Far Left and so-called antifascist groups.
Last summer, I reported on two strategies anarchist networks had proposed, both of which included fomenting a “revolutionary rupture” that tipped the scales of a mass movement into mass revolutionary action. I’ve not seen those plans revisited since they were published, nor have I seen any evidence that anarchist groups are getting behind that strategy. There are no accelerators of that “revolutionary rupture” right now.
And there’s been virtually no movement within even the most fervent revolutionary groups active throughout 2016-2021, despite Trump beating Biden in polls and ostensibly having a clear path to winning the 2024 election. One would not be wrong to expect the revolutionary Left to be ‘warming up’ this close to an election that Trump may win. The lack of agitation and seeming disinterest in mass organizing right now is curious.
There could be three explanations for this lack of activity. First, there is no right wing street action (Proud Boys, Patriot Prayer, etc.) for the antifa movement to respond to. Given the high risk of arrest and imprisonment, those types of right wing street groups are probably not coming back. This absence alone would explain the lack of direct action demonstrations and counter-demonstrations we saw from 2016 to 2020.
Second, as previously covered, left wing unrest and violence would hurt Biden’s chances of reelection by increasing popular support for Trump’s “law and order” campaign plank.
And third, despite the risk of Trump winning the election in November, it doesn’t appear that any national-level organizers are promoting mass mobilization. That could change, however.
Why It Matters: Mass mobilization and mass action are unlikely until strong conflict accelerators appear or national-level organizers begin to throw weight behind mobilizing against Trump. Anti-Trump protests could begin in July when Trump becomes the Republican presidential nominee, but a repeat of 2020 is unlikely. – M.S.
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