(1) CDC TELLS STATES TO PREPARE FOR AVIAN FLU OUTBREAKS:
Officials from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warned state public health officials to prepare for possible avian flu outbreaks. However, the threat to the public remains low. “We have never seen this scale of infections in mammals” and there are few options to intervene in mammal avian flu outbreaks, Dutch virologist Ron Fouchier said.
Why It Matters: Conjunctivitis infections, like the one reported in Texas, are more common. However, respiratory infections are the most dangerous and account for most fatalities from H5N1 human infections. The most dangerous risk remains that H5N1 mutates to become more transmissible from human to human, and respiratory infections increase. Gain-of-function experiments with H5N1 have been going on for over a decade, including in U.S. labs under National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding for Fouchier at the University of Wisconsin. During Fouchier’s time at that lab, there were two lab leak incidents, and biosecurity experts criticized the lab for lax safety protocols. – R.C.
(2) BIDEN APPEALS IMMIGRANT GUN CASE AMID WORK PERMIT SURGE:
The Department of Justice filed a notice to appeal Illinois Judge Sharon Coleman’s ruling that illegal immigrants can legally possess firearms after the landmark Supreme Court case New York Rifle and Pistol Association v. Bruen.A Department of Homeland Security (DHS) spokesperson said the Biden administration has “taken many steps to make sure that individuals who are eligible for employment authorization are informed, and, where possible, to accelerate the processing of employment authorization documents.
”Why It Matters: The Supreme Court will likely take up this appeal to resolve a circuit split. Illinois Judge Coleman is likely setting up a Supreme Court decision that will allow DACA and federal work permit-holding state and local police to possess their service weapons while off duty, removing the primary obstacle to police agencies hiring illegal immigrants. The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms (BATF), Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), and federal work permit holders can be issued firearms for duty use by government police agencies without violating the Gun Control Act. – R.C.
(3) NERC: GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS THREATEN U.S. GRID:
North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) senior vice president Manny Cancel said the current geopolitical situation “has significant ramifications” for the North American grid and is contributing to “a dramatic increase in malicious cyber activity.”“We know activists continue to use this as a vehicle” to advance their ideology and politics, and the NERC will be very vigilant heading into the November election, Cancel added.
Why It Matters: State-affiliated cyberattacks against U.S. critical infrastructure remain the most significant threat to the U.S. grid, water, and telecommunications infrastructure. Physical attacks on power substations and energy infrastructure were previously considered a far right accelerationist tactic. However, there has been a recent push by far left anti-war anarchists to target energy infrastructure with the goal of disrupting defense contractors and supply chains. – R.C.
(4) POWER BILLS OUTPACE INFLATION AS EXPECTED DEMAND EXPLODES:
According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, electricity prices nationwide grew by 3.6% year-over-year in February, and three out of four major metropolitan areas saw increased electricity prices. Grid Strategies president Rob Gramlich said electricity demand by 2028 will be 5% higher than all 2023 power consumption, double the increase that companies expected in 2023. “A lot of people’s eyes just popped out in the past six months,” Gramlich added.
Why It Matters: This is an early sign of increasing power bills for Americans nationwide, as demand increases and generation capacity has been flat for more than a decade. Electrification, AI, and data centers are the primary drivers of this exploding demand. Americans are likely to experience increasing energy prices and less reliable power. – R.C.
(5) CHINA: U.S. “OVERSTRETCHING” BORDER SECURITY: Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Mao Ning again accused the United States of “overstretching the concept of national security” after a number of Chinese students were deported and had their visas canceled. China’s ambassador to the United States, Xie Feng, previously said that some Chinese students were denied entry into the U.S. after attempting to return to school from trips abroad.
Why It Matters: It’s unclear if the Chinese students were barred entry over counterintelligence concerns, but connections to Chinese intelligence or the Chinese Communist Party is a plausible explanation. China is making use of lax security on the southern border to infiltrate nationals into the United States. Getting Chinese nationals into the U.S. is not a problem. Their problem is that getting Chinese nationals into U.S. universities, research institutions, and other official positions requires entry through official channels, which carries a higher counterintelligence screening risk. – M.S.
(6) U.S. WILL “FUNDAMENTALLY” CHANGE JAPAN’S DEFENSE POSTURE:
U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel said the Japanese defense posture would “fundamentally” change to increase deterrence against China. Emanuel also said that China “cannot cheat and steal the way you did the last ten years” and that U.S. allies in the Asia-Pacific are all “coming together” to isolate China.
Why It Matters: The trilateral U.S.-Japan-Philippines summit is scheduled for Thursday, and we note an increase in diplomatic posturing against China. Biden was previously reported as set to “warn” China that its aggressive actions against the Philippines could violate the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty. This appears to be a much harder stance than previous U.S. policy. – M.S.
(7) NAVY TO EXPAND PAPUA NEW GUINEA BASE: The U.S. Navy is preparing to spend up to $25 million renovating a naval base in Papua New Guinea (PNG) as part of last year’s Defense Cooperation Agreement. The renovations will include a new pier, a small boat facility, and a regional maritime training center.Why It Matters: A base in PNG will primarily serve as a small vessel waystation for resupply and very localized security. It will also secure safe passage for the Australian northern bases, which are under surveillance threat from Chinese police stationed in Papua New Guinea. Generally, this will provide shorter and safer supply lines through Oceania’s island chain. – J.V.
Global Rollup U.S. officials say they have not been briefed by Israel on the potential start date of military operations in Rafah, Gaza. Russia called for an emergency meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency following what it calls continued drone attacks against the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Canada announced a new defense spending plan that will see $73 billion poured into Arctic defense initiatives over the next 20 years. Spending will be focused on procuring new patrolling and surveillance vehicles, such as fighter jets, ocean sensors, and maritime aircraft and boats. Pakistan has deployed over 100,000 police and paramilitary personnel ahead of today’s Eid al-Fitr holiday in anticipation of possible terrorist attacks.
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